Obama plants a devastating seed

Yeah yeah yeah Obama buddied up to a slum lord and Hillary worked for Wal-Mart. So what. Still, it is fun watching these two tear ass into each other. Don’t you just get the feeling that Hillary wants to say “Obama come back in 10 years when you’ve paid your dues – and by the way nobody has paid dues like I have” and Obama just wants to say “Yeah, I can come back in ten years but you’d still be a bitch who couldn’t get elected dog catcher in half the states in the country.”

Or maybe it’s just me.

Aaaaaaaanyway, what struck me last night is the little bomb that Obama shrewdly sent out in a seemingly off the cuff, heat of the moment exchange with Hillary. I am not sure if he planned to say that he doesn’t know who he’s running against sometimes but even if it was unplanned it was a pretty clever tactic.

As Vincent from Pulp Fiction would say, it breaks down like this:

Clearly, Bill Clinton is a huge asset for Hillary. He’s one of, if not the best campaigners of his generation and wildly popular even among people who probably don’t even like Hillary. So Obama tries to turn that strength into a weakness by implying that Hillary is letting her husband do her campaigning (read: fighting) for her.

A “when the going gets tough, you have to run to your man do your work for you” implication like this could be devastating if it takes hold because it touches on both the nepotistical aspects of Hillary’s candidacy as well as subtly deploying the old gender stereotype that women aren’t strong enough to be president.

I am also sure that Hillary is smart enough that she picked up on what Obama was trying to do and it pissed her off even more than she already is. Imagine, after everything she has been through over the years, now having to face down this little twerp who gets pass after pass from the adoring media, it’s just terrible and yet totally entertaining to watch.

It may not happen but do not be surprised if one day she just ups and loses her shit on whomever is standing around her at the time. I just hope that when it happens, 1. the cameras are rolling and 2. she isn’t the President of the United States of America.

Super-delegates and the Democratic party

The Democrats don’t trust their constituency.

But that’s OK. Or so that’s what the Democratic National Committee would like us to believe. They are protecting voters from themselves in an effort to avoid another McGovern like disaster. Wikipedia can tell you all about that.

There are many explanations of the super-delegate, but I’m here to discuss the fact that these delegates are not bound to any currently-relevant primary election process. These folks are former presidents, current or former members of congress, and certain elite members of the Democratic party or the Democratic National Commitee. They are free to chose which candidate to endorse, and they are essentially a safety net for the DNC so they don’t end up with any ideological freaks representing the party in the general election.

In 2004, there were a number of notable super-delegates that had come out in favor of Howard Dean prior to the Iowa primary, based on his appeal to a young demographic. After his poor showing in Iowa, Dean was abandoned by those same super-delegates. This, of course, means that an endorsement is also not binding.

These super delegates represent about 40% of the overall delegates required to secure the Democratic nomination. Of the 197 super delegates who have endorsed a candidate to date, Hillary Clinton has support of 58% of those. Barack Obama holds 23%. If those percentages hold, that gives Clinton 488 or so of the 842 super-delegates available. That’s somewhere shy of 25% of what she needs to win the nomination.

OK – so what’s the point? Well, it would appear that the watchword in the early days of the primary season is change. Change is likely to become synonymous with another favorite and equally meaningless watchword – electability. If there is no clear-cut leader heading into the Democratic Convention in August, these super-delegates clearly become very important. We haven’t seen a race with two such strong and popular candidates in recent memory.

This puts the party and the super-delegates in an interesting position to chose the candidate to represent them in the general election. There will likely be enough poll data, enough conventional wisdom, enough punditry to go around for party officials (read: super-delegates) to chose the candidate of “change” who is most “electable”. At this point, all endorsements are up for grabs, including that of former President Bill Clinton, who is of course related to Senator Clinton through marriage.

Let’s say, by some strange twist of fate, conventional wisdom leads the DNC to believe that Obama is that candidate. Would the party ask Al Gore, Bill Clinton, the New York Representatives, et. al. to pull their endorsements of Senator Clinton and back Senator Obama for a run at the White House? Not hard to imagine this scenario.

As stated, the super-delegates were put in place as a safety valve for the party. This same safety valve could conceivably fracture the party, leading to a disenfranchised constituency and pave the way for a Republican victory.

Interesting times.