Dear black folks, I am sorry

Ok, is it just me or did Hillary Clinton’s apology to ‘the black community’ ring just a little bit hollow? Call me a psychic friend but I am guessing that her advisers probably sat her down in a room and there was a conversation that went a little something like this:

“Um, Hillary, you know that thing that you have been doing that Bill started in South Carolina where you basically just dismiss Barack Obama’s entire candidacy by painting him as ‘the black candidate?’ Yeah, well that’s really kind of starting piss people off. I mean, everybody is kind of pissed about it and, well, black people are reeeeallllly pissed about it. Apparently, they just went 9 out of 10 against you in Mississippi and pretty much erased any gains you made with Ohio, Rhode Island and Texas. So, um, seeing as how no democrat will ever get elected to the presidency without a strong turnout from African-American voters, we’re really gonna need you to make a speech or something to, um, well kind of say you’re, um, well, you know, you’re ah, well, you’re sorry.”

And then, after Hillary killed that guy and they dragged his body away (I am guessing on a plastic tarp, but that’s really just a guess) she apparently took his words to heart. Of course, she was probably eating his heart that she pulled out of his chest like the bad guy from Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom while she did it, but the important thing was that she listened.

So yesterday, like a boyfriend who isn’t sure what he did and really doesn’t feel like he should be in trouble but who desperately wants to get laid again sometime this year, Hillary trotted out a nice big fat apology to all of the black folks who were offended by some of her campaign tactics, and to all the folks who didn’t like Hurricane Katrina and to all of the folks who were pissed that they tried to replace Arnold with that younger, cuter red-headed white kid during the last season of ‘Diff’rent Strokes.’

Ok, I made that last one up, but still, if it would have gotten her one more percentage point of the black vote in Philly, I have no doubt that Hillary would have stood up there and sang ‘Boogie Wonderland’ by Earth, Wind and Fire if they’d have asked her too.

Frankly, I am not sure what is more insulting, being told that the black guy who is campaigning better than you is just winning because he is black or being pandered to because someone finally realized that, oh yeah, your vote isn’t just a commodity to be taken for granted.

Either way, the Clinton campaign has now done their best to make this a race between blue-collar whites (read: poor) against black and once again the people who stand to gain the most from this are the old white guy and all of his rich friends.

Thanks a lot Hillary.

The problem with early momentum

Early leads often appear “insurmountable”. Clear, consistent trends lead to “foregone conclusions”. Neighbors of a murderer often comment “he seemed like such a normal guy – this is such a shock.” Friends and relatives of heart attack victims have been known to comment: “she was so healthy – we never saw this coming”. These are reasons the current political trends are concerning for the Democratic Party.

When prevailing public sentiment indicates one direction, look the other way. And don’t get hit by the bus.

What are the current indicators, trends, majority opinions, predictions, or other things that we can see at the moment?

1. Democrats are showing up at the polls in droves – 14.6 million democrats vs. 8.3 million republicans. Pundits seem to think this is good news for the democrats. It could be, but usually isn’t. It’s a historical trend, with only two notable primary seasons where the 3:2 ratio/rule did not hold true: Clinton re-election in 1996 and Gore in 2000. (Numbers here.) Most notable in all of this, the Democrats are very excited about their candidates, while the Republicans clearly are not.
2. Democrats are raising more money than the Republicans. This is actually interesting, as the Republican Party is typically viewed as having deeper pockets than their Democratic counterparts. But it only matters if the Democrats don’t waste it all attacking one another in Primary Elections. But it still is interesting.
3. At least 6 different polls show or have shown that Obama beats McCain in the General Election. OK. Polls also showed Obama beating Clinton in New Hampshire, and that certainly didn’t work out according to the numbers. Polls are inherently unreliable, and yet the media continues to forget this fact 14 seconds after acknowledging it each time they re-learn it. The gum on my shoe has more memory recall than many of these political pundits.
4. The super-delegate safety valve in the Democratic Party looms as a large concern. As I wrote previously and as many outlets are also beginning to report, this is a potentially devastating problem for the Dems. Not so much a trend, but the Republicans have to be giddy at the prospect of the Democrats undermining their constituency by going against the popular vote to accede to prevailing wisdom (see item 3 above) and select the candidate with the best shot at beating the Republican nominee. This leads to disenfranchisement and low turnout and an easy path to victory for the Republicans.

If I were a hard-core democrat, I’d be very concerned about each of these developments. But I am superstitious, and each of these things concern me, as I don’t think four more years of Republican leadership is what this country needs. Let’s take a quick look the whole problem in a bit more detail, because that’s when concern really starts to grow.

As stated, the Democrats are showing up at the polling places and caucus sites in big numbers. Part of this is due to anger with the current administration, part is historical trend, and part of this is no doubt due to the magnetism of Barack Obama. He has shown a strong ability to pull the younger demographic, while Hillary consistently pulls the 59+ crowd. They fight for the middle age ranges. As far as race goes, Obama has proven he can win the white vote with victories in the south, midwest, west, northeast. He has great pull among African-Americans, and has shown he can win in the midwest. He has also shown he can pull the moderate vote. Clinton resonates with women, but not as consistently as Obama with the African-American vote.

If the super-delegates push the tally towards Clinton, I don’t expect Obama’s core following to simply fall in line behind her. I don’t think there will be a dream ticket with Obama on the undercard. These voters will either stay home in November, or jump ship to a moderately conservative McCain. Either way, not good for the Democratic Party.

McCain’s chances greatly improve against Clinton, as he will be able to capture the moderates and independents as well as those who simply want to keep the Clintons out of the White House. This coupled with disenfranchised Democratic voters will cause McCain turnout to skyrocket.

The Democrats need to address the national campaign sooner rather than later. Howard Dean, DNC leader, has said as much recently. Dean indicated a candidate will emerge in February or March, or they will have a sit down. In the meantime, the DNC can run counter-McCain ad campaigns, but don’t really have a message to rally around other than “don’t vote for another Republican who sounds a lot like the current president”.

Obama and Clinton continue to rack up big campaign donations to fight against one another. Their public positions have really become much more civilized and a bit more unified. In their debates and speeches, they are focusing on their differences on issues rather than taking one another’s words out of context and twisting them. That’s what the ad campaigns will be for. This is a waste of time and money.

The Democrats need to capitalize on this early momentum and grow it. Otherwise, as the saying goes, past performance will not be an indicator of future success.

More Primary Predictions

Don’t look now kids but this thing ain’t over by a long shot. I am predicting that February is going to be a cold cruel month for Hillary Clinton but, if she can make it through the February gauntlet, things will look up for her in March.

Anyway, the logic these predictions are based on is fairly simple:

• Obama has been winning caucuses and primaries where the state has a significant black population (i.e. here comes D.C., Baltimore, Louisiana)
• Clinton has been winning hard core democratic state primaries and still does well with Hispanics
• McCain is taking pretty much every moderate to conservative republican state
• Huckabee is winning the states in which a majority of republicans still believe in Santa Claus, the Rapture and Magic Faries (no not Sigfried and Roy, the other kind).

Upcoming Primaries (my projected winner) *

February 9
Louisiana primary (Obama, Huckabee),
Washington caucuses (Obama, McCain),
Nebraska caucuses – democrats only (Obama)
Kansas caucuses – republicans only (Huckabee)

February 10
Maine caucuses – democrats only (Obama)

February 12
Maryland primary (Obama, McCain)
Virginia primary (Obama, McCain)
Washington, D.C. primary (Obama, McCain)

February 19
Wisconsin primary (Obama, McCain)
Hawaii caucuses – democrats only (Obama)

March 4
Ohio primary (Obama, McCain)
Rhode Island primary (Clinton, McCain)
Texas primary (Clinton, Huckabee)
Vermont primary (Clinton)

*As always, predictions guaranteed or your money back

Super Duper Tuesday Predictions – The Reckoning!

Update 2:41PM CST
Ok so I was a day early on Romney and perhaps 2 days late on Huckabee? We will see but still you have to admit 1 out of two and the week isn’t even over yet.  By the way, I would argue that the real reason Romney quit is that he didn’t want to throw anymore of his money down the rat hole.

 ————————————————-

Well folks, Super Duper Tuesday came and went and what did it tell us besides the fact that ‘the fool’ in “a fool and his money are soon parted” is Mitt Romney? Since I went out on a limb and made a few predictions prior to the races, I figure I ought to stand up and see if any of them panned out as I expected.

Turn out will be extremely high for the democrats and average to low for the republicans.
Turn out was high everywhere. Apparently the republicans don’t really care if they hate all their choices, they’re still gonna vote.

The republican race for the nomination is d-o-n-e
Oh and it is. Huckabee is not a viable national candidate and his successes do nothing but steal votes from Romney who nobody is in love with anyway. The money is running out for both of them and the math only gets harder from here.

Starting Wednesday, every Republican becomes the biggest Hillary supporter you’ve ever seen
Secretly they are but you are not going ot hear about it until the GOP gets settled. Let’s see about this one on March 5th.

Huckabee is out on Wednesday, Romney is gone by Friday
Huckabee winning so many southern states surprised me. I thought that, if he couldn’t win South Carolina, he couldn’t win anywhere. Still he’s not a viable national candidate and sooner or later he will run out of states where people think that the Left Behind series is serious literature (the ones that can read that is).

Romney still may be gone by the end of the week (I am sure his kids are not pleased about him flushing their inheritance away) but he is hoping folks like Rick Santorum and Rush Limbaugh are going to save him. It’s not going to happen Mitt. Save your money for the senate run.

The map will go for Hillary and the the delegates will for Obama
Actually the map and the delegates went for Obama but, with the media so focused on California and with so many results coming in so late, this got missed. Hillary should thank the democratic party for setting up a vote counting scheme so complex that it makes tax law look like the puzzle that helps Ronald get through McDonaldland . Still Obama’s big loss in Massachusetts was a bad sign for him in that he put in a lot of effort, got the endorsement from the Kennedys and still got trounced. It also happened early enough to give the media a good storyline while waitng for Missouri to fall.

Hillary spin: I’m losing in the states that we are not going to win in the general election anyway
Again, since the results were so complex to explain, there really wasn’t a need to spin anything. Just declare victory and keep on going. But, when a candidate is asking for more debates it usually indicates that they feel like they are losing.

Obama spin: I’m losing the states that are guaranteed to us. Oh and did I mention that I am ahead on delegates
Disappointing lack of spin from the Obama camp. This seems to be a prevalent thing this week. Mark Penn is all over the news for Hillary with his ridiculous comments but we aren’t hearing a lot from the Obama campaign.

Obama spin II: Sure I lost California but half the voters voted before they knew who I was
see above. Oh, and he lost Ca worse than he should have and it is a bad sign.

Obama puts Hillary and McCain in bed together on Wednesday morning
Again, put this one off until the first democratic debate after the March 4th primaries.

Edwards endorses Obama (even if he doesn’t)
Bingo was his name o! Obama did better than ever with the kind of white voters that Edwards was winning before he got out.

Here come the lawyers
The Hillary camp continues to put out feelers. Look for this to heat up by the end of February

Finally, Hillary and Obama will both claim victory on Tuesday night (but Obama will have really won)
As I said before, Obama just being in this thing is a win. It has largely gone ignored that this whole front-loaded primary process was designed to give Hillary the nomination by Feb 5th and keep any kind of outside candidate (i.e. Bill Bradley in 2000) from messing her up. It was designed by the head of the DNC, Terry McAuliffe who is now, you guessed it, campaign manager for Hillary Clinton. So the fix was in form the beginning. Now we have made it past the gauntlet and the two are essentially in a tie with Obama having more money and better primaries coming up for the rest of the month.

For those 94 million of you that watched last weekend’s super bowl, perhaps you recognize the “keep it close and win it at the end” strategy that has been helping the underdog beat the favorite for years. Still, the Obama camp had better remember that sometimes the league wants the favorite to win and isn’t above throwing in a couple of questionable calls to make it happen.

Super Tuesday shenanigans?

So John McCain Mike Huckabee won West Virginia. Sounds like Mitt Romney is accusing John McCain and Mike Huckabee of a back-room deal to push support to Huckabee if McCain became not-viable at the convention.

So now Romney is upset at being victimized by the political game:

“Unfortunately, this is what Sen. McCain’s inside Washington ways look like: He cut a backroom deal with the tax-and-spend candidate he thought could best stop Gov. Romney’s campaign of conservative change.”

Huckabee’s response? Humorous:

“I thought he was saying yesterday, ‘No whining.’ So is it no whining or whining? He can’t even keep a straight answer on the ‘whining or no whining’ question.”

I’ve determined that Mitt Romney is a shinier version of Doug Neidermeyer of Animal House and Twisted Sister fame. I’m waiting for Romney to pull a Doug Neidermeyer-esque outburst to cement his status as an idiot. On the heels of all his flip-flops, most recently his stoopid comments about Bob Dole, Mitt Romney continues to not understand national politics or the gravity of the statements he makes. He uses attack ads, yet complains of the same old Washington political process. He is acting like a petulant child, and if he doesn’t start to play the game better, he’ll have to go home and figure out to do with all his money. Boo-hoo.

Predictions for Super Duper Tuesday*

Ok kids, lets get into it because after tomorrow, some old white guys are going to be very happy, some old white women are going to be very sad and Mike Huckabee still won’t know his ass from a hole in the ground.

And a final note before we get into the predictions, all of these are based upon my own interpretation of several media outlets, a few polls (worthless) and what I am hearing from the various nut jobs who have nothing better to do than post political comments on the Internet all day. You get the idea.

Overall Predictions

Turn out will be extremely high for the democrats and average to low for the republicans.
This is a symptom of the two races being completely different in their competitiveness and SHOULD NOT be taken as an indication of turn out in November. In other words (and I am looking at you Hillary supporters) don’t think just because GOP voters didn’t turn out in droves to coronate McCain it means that they won’t walk uphill two miles in the snow to beat the pants suit off of your girl.

GOP predictions

The republican race for the nomination is d-o-n-e
Mitt Romney can look in all the hats and read all the magic rocks he wants but he’s not going to be the nominee. McCain is about to eat his lunch in a very dramatic and very undeniable way that will leave more than a few publicly wondering, “what if the GOP had actually nominated this guy against Gore in 2000.”

Starting Wednesday, every Republican becomes the biggest Hillary supporter you’ve ever seen
McCain has said that he will “beat Hillary Clinton like a drum” and just about everyone but Gloria Steinem knows that he his right. Look for this line in McCain’s victory speech on Tuesday night and his stump speech on Wednesday morning. More than anything else, this will resonate with GOP voters and make them see past their distaste for many of McCain’s positions.

Huckaby is out on Wednesday, Romney is gone by Friday
Good ol’ Huck has gotten more mileage out of this race than he probably ever thought possible. Look for him to be a long-sitting and very popular senator from Arkansas in the near future.

Meanwhile (at the Legion of Doom), Romney will take a couple of days to ask everyone he knows “what the hell just happened?” But ultimately he will fall in line after most likely getting a “how’d you like to be Secretary of the Treasury” phone call from the chairman of the republican party.

Democratic Predictions

The map will go for Hillary and the the delegates will for Obama
Prepare to be amazed and confused folks cause this one gets a little complicated. Because the democratic primaries award all their delegates proportionately, neither Obama nor Hillary will get much of an edge in states like California, where they are neck and neck. So, Obama supporters, don’t get too down if Hillary “wins” California. The way that either candidate is going to help themselves is by beating the crap out of their opponent in the states that they are overwhelmingly ahead. For Obama, this will be places like Georgia and Illinois. For Hillary , it will be places like New York and New Jersey.

Hillary will end up “winning” more states (but only by a smidge which will give her little or no more delegates than her opponent) but Obama will trounce her in the states that he does win (thereby getting more delegates). So when the networks put up their map it will look like Hillary is winning even when she is actually losing.

Hillary spin: I’m losing in the states that we are not going to win in the general election anyway
Look for Hillary to do really well in the traditional democratic strongholds of the West Coast and the Northeast (and if she doesn’t she is in trouble). She will spin this as showing that her wins are more meaningful since Barack Obama can be as popular as Jesus Christ in place like South Carolina but there is no way in Hell that the democrats are taking it in the general election.

Obama spin: I’m losing the states that are guaranteed to us. Oh and did I mention that I am ahead on delegates
One of Obama’s strongest arguments is that he can steal independents and republicans away from John McCain. His primary wins are going to reinforce that and support his arguments that, if the democrats are going to win the white house, they need to take states away from the GOP and not just keep the states that they won in 2000 and 2004.

Like in Nevada, don’t look for the Obama camp to concede anything no matter what Tim Russert’s map looks like. You get to be the democratic nominee by getting delegates not by turning the states a certain color on a map. The Obama campaign will remind everyone of this so many times on Tuesday night that it might even eventually sink in.

Obama spin II: Sure I lost California but half the voters voted before they knew who I was
If Obama loses Ca big, look for the campaign to point out how the voting broke down between those who voted early and those who voted the day of. In California alone over half the voters have already voted. This helps Hillary a great deal since she was the presumed nominee with a huge lead when most of these people were voting.

Obama puts Hillary and McCain in bed together on Wednesday morning
John McCain being the republican nominee helps Obama in a myriad of ways but one you may see more in the coming days is the Obama campaign touting Hillary’s “close relationship” with McCain. Hillary Clinton and John McCain are old Senate buddies and look for Obama to exploit this by saying that now the race is between a republican, a republican-lite and a democrat.

Edwards endorses Obama (even if he doesn’t)
Edwards voters (white males) will break big for Obama. This will be one of the dominating stories of the night.

Here come the lawyers
Once again Florida looms large in determining an election and this time it has brought its little brother Michigan (or as I like to call it – Northern Georgia). Tuesday night is going to show everyone once and for all that this race is going to come down to delegate count. Hillary “won” both Michigan and Florida and is not about to just let those delegates go uncounted. Look for the Hillary campaign to start pushing hard to get those delegates seated and look for the Obama campaign to start to pushing hard back.

This more than anything has the potential to sour this election for the democrats by escalating into a very ugly, very dirty, very public fight, (and do not think the Clintons would hesitate to go there if it means Hillary wins the nomination). I think that this issue starts to come to the forefront on Tuesday night (I am sure both campaigns were hoping to avoid it by getting a rout but that isn’t going to happen). Personally, I think it will go down like this :

1. The Clintons will try to put Florida and Michigan in play to win the nomination
2. A grass roots campaign will start up to protest this and threaten to derail the democrats hopes for November
3. Party peacemakers (Gore, Mitchell) will step in to broker a compromise that lets everyone save face and gets Florida and Michigan represented (but not in the way that Hillary wants)

Finally, Hillary and Obama will both claim victory on Tuesday night (but Obama will have really won)
It is mathematically impossible for the nomination to be won on Tuesday and the polls look like, if anything, the results will give both campaigns hope. However, just by being in the race this late and by being favored by voters who are deciding later, Obama’s future looks brighter in the states ahead. Look for another landslide of donations for the Obama campaign come Wednesday and Thursday and a new message from Hillary by the weekend (including a possible campaign shakeup).

*As always, predictions are guaranteed to be accurate or your money back

John McCain: the Berkshire Hathaway of the Republican Party?

John McCain has always been a bit of an iconoclast. The one with “heretical views”. Much like the investing philosophy of Warren Buffet, John McCain’s success in the race for the Republican Presidential Nomination is predicated on his ability to prosper in spite of a down market.

The current administration is the biggest drag on the Republican Party, yet McCain manages to appeal to people in spite of his clear support of the war in Iraq. His similarly clear stance on the ridiculous economic policy of the current administration is a key part of this appeal. His draw also comes from his ability to speak to people in unambiguous language. He favors tax cuts (for more than just the rich), repeal of Roe v. Wade, and other core party perspectives. He leaves other key issues such as gay marriage and some civil rights and education questions to the states.

Mostly standard stuff. Then there are some of his other views. He’s on the record about the global warming problem…and he acknowledges that it is a problem that needs to be addressed. His past perspective on immigration (guest workers!) isn’t doing him any favors with his colleagues, but he is recently saying “I hear you”, or something to that effect. Not sure where he really stands economically, other than he won’t stand for pork-barrel spending, which is a good start. But further research here is required.

I am curious how he plans to cut taxes and decrease federal spending while continuing to support the war in Iraq with our money and our (and his) children? Huge expenditure funded by diminishing tax dollars. In the past, we’ve funded things like this by borrowing money from our children by way of China.

But, as my friend and colleague points out, he did just win the conservative stronghold of South Carolina. And I do agree that he has a better shot in the general election against anyone from the Democratic Party. As long as he keeps up the straight talk, avoids Rudy 9-11iani in Florida, he’s going to get that shot. And given the stellar job old dubya has done pooping on the Republican Party name, I never would have thought a republican had a shot at the white house in 2008. Warren Buffet should be proud of such success in such adverse times.

How the democrats lost in S.C. tonight (without even having an election)

While the country may have just dodged an enormous bullet tonight by not having Mike Huckabee win in S.C., the democrats may look back at tonight’s republican primary in 6 months and conclude that this is exactly when their fate was sealed.

It would have been far far better for Hillary and the gang (and further evidence that S.C. really deserves its coveted spot at the bottom of the national education rankings) if the wing nuts had turned out for Mike Huckabee instead of splitting their vote toward Huck and Thompson. Huckabee was counting on S.C. and, with tonight’s loss, the writing is pretty much on the wall for him and his television ministry.

Instead, the GOP looks like it’s going to go with the smart money and pick the guy who’s most likely to pants anyone the democrats choose to throw out in November, John McCain. The fact that Huckabee couldn’t win in the biblest of the bible belt states squished with the fact that Romney has only won 1 real contested primary, layered on top of the fact that Rudy Guiliani’s let’s-let-all-the-other-candidates-get-all-the-money-and-press-and-delegates-before-we-even-start-

trying strategy shows that he’s just too stoopid to be president all points to the party eventually (probably very soon if McCain wins Florida) will line up behind John “the Hillary killer” McCain.

Does anyone seriously think that Hillary Clinton is going to beat John McCain in a general election in this country? Perhaps if Connecticut were to secede, start its own republic and then have McCain and Hillary run for supreme leader . . . maybe.

Meanwhile at the Legion of Doom . . .

Getting lost in all the hullaballoo over the democratic nomination, with its always entertaining test of whether you are a racist, a sexist or both, there’s a perfectly scintillating contest going on to see who’s going to take over the reigns of the just-about-to-explode-but-is-still-pretty-evil death star that is the republican party.

Many in politics are saying that this is the year when the boys in red finally wake up with each other only to discover that the promises that were made in the bar at 2 am don’t necessarily ring true in the cold morning light of a centrist nation where putting your socks and creeping out the door may not be as easy as you had hoped.

Politics has been conspiring to make these strange bedfellows ever since Ralph Reed did his unholy dance to get George H. Bush elected in 1988 and even though Ralph had moved on by then, the same formula held true when George II beat the hapless John Kerry in 2004 when almost all of us (except for Karl Rove who is Solomon Grundy – “Karl Rove smash you!”) thought that his fois gras was cooked.

But, while George the II was a perfect combination of big money corporate interests and snake-handling wing nut, there has not arisen another ‘uniter’ to take his party forward and to keep his party in power for another 4 years. This is not to say that the GOP is sunk because no one and I mean NO ONE can snatch defeat from the jaws of victory like the democrats can, but it is looking like the check is now due on issues like abortion, gay marriage and school prayer. And all those votes that ol Solomon Grundy got on that dark Ohio night in 2004 look like they may eventually cost the party this year’s election.

But, since lists are fun, let’s do a quick breakdown of the relevant GOP candidates, including a few words about them and who they would be in the Hall of Doom.

Mitt Romney – Leaving out the bit about the magic rocks in the hat (Wikipedia: Mormons.) Mitt Romney is the Hillary Clinton of the GOP primary race in that he will say anything and adopt any position as long as it gets him into the White House. Boy are those values voters going to be pissed come October when Mitt agrees in a debate that maybe an assault weapons ban is a pretty reasonable idea and if a couple of gay guys want to get married then who is he to stop them. Because he is megalomaniacal and because of the eyebrows, Mitt Romney has to be Gorilla Grodd.

Mike Huckabee – Just plain crazy. What can you say about a guy who went on national tv and not only told denied millions of years of fossil record but then told everyone that it would be great for the economy if everything were 23% more expensive. Wikipedia says that the Riddler “used riddles to taunt and confuse adversaries with while committing crimes.” Well Huck, I am definitely taunted and confused.

Rudy Guiliani – The human drinking game. Joe Biden should have won the presidency just with his line about every sentence that Rudy says “has a noun, a verb and 9-11.” So basically, Rudy, you’re using possibly the worst day in American history to scare everyone so we will vote for you. Rudy(n) is(v) the(a) Scarecrow . . . (wait for it) . . .9-11!

John McCain – Or as I like to call him “my ace in the hole just in case the democrats screw this up.” McCain is a legitimate war hero and one of the few politicians you will ever hear who will own up to a mistake. I once heard him say that his neglecting to call for South Carolina to remove the Confederate Battle Flag from the state house lawn was “an act of cowardice” which he regretted. That is integrity (I’m looking at you Mitt and Hillary). BUT he was utterly kneecapped in 2000 by George Bush’s attack dogs and the fact that he could not only shake hands with George II after that but also stay in the party AND campaign for GW in 2004 is something I will never understand. John McCain is Bizarro.

And finally we have the guy who basically looks exactly like what republican presidents are supposed to look like, Fred Thompson. Apparently Fred thought that this was going to be enough to get him the nomination because frankly I think I  have made more campaign speeches than he has and I am not even  running. Of course, Fred’s wife is hotter. Anyway,  I am not sure if it is the hair or the total state of denial that he keeps getting his ass kicked but Fred gets to be Lex Luthor – he’s rich, he’s bald, and you can tell that he knows even if he loses he can always call the Hall of Doom to take him back to his hot wife and his sweet tv gig.

Its unclear whether or not the Legion can rise out of the swamp one more time to hold us all hostage their death ray, but 2 things are sure:

1. The Hall of Doom is always hovering, waiting to beam up our GOP friends before they can get indicted and

2. somewhere Rudy Guiliani just mentioned 9-11.

Did the Independent vote really help John McCain?

Pundit thought has indicated that it was the Independent vote that carried Senator John McCain to victory in the New Hampshire primary. Let’s look at the numbers to see what we can see:

• New Hampshire has around 850,000 registered voters
  • 26% of those are registered Democrats – 221,000 or so
  • 30% of those are registered Republicans, which is about 255,000
  • 44% of those are Indepentent voters – about 374,000

• According to final results, 517,226 voters turned out on primary day in New Hampshire. This represents almost a 61% voter turnout. Not sure if this includes absentee ballots, but i suspect not.
  • Nearly 55% of those voting participated in the Democratic primary – 284,050
  • That leaves 45% voting for the Republican slate – 233,176

• Since I’m not a statistician, I can’t really do this “properly”, I’m sure. But let’s take this one or two steps further based on simple math. Based on a nearly 61% turnout, I would expect:
  • 134,478 Democrats
  • 155,168 Republicans
  • 227,579 Independents

  It’s unrealistic to expect that 61% turnout to apply equally to all three groups, but without pouring through exit poll data, we can’t be sure. And even with exit poll data, do we really trust that information? Polls have proven unreliable, so let’s ignore them for the moment.

• Continuing this simple analysis: (note: here is where I am unsure how correct this can be without reliable poll data – more on that below)
  • 149,571 Independents turned out for the Democratic slate of candidates
  • 78,008 Independents chose to vote on the Republican side

  But I’m certain this isn’t really accurate. NPR has some good analysis of exit poll data that indicates something else. This is interesting – according to exit poll data:

  • 119,301 Independents voted Democratic – about 30,000 fewer than my simple math
  • 79,280 Independents voted Republican – only off by 1,280 here

  OK then. So what? A little more math.

• Of the remaining “true party” voters, the Democrats came out in slightly larger numbers compared to their Republican neighbors – 51.7% to 48.3%. Assuming these voters would vote for the candidate of their party, it looks a lot like a general election number. And probably “statistically insignificant”.

So back to the original question – Did the Independent vote really help John McCain? Most certainly, yes. But it helped someone (or someones) equally or more in the Democratic primary given the exit poll data and voter turnout. I haven’t seen this angle reported on for the Democrats with the same level of interest as it has been for McCain and the Republicans.

Based on one primary with a very small sample size, it would seem that both parties have the ability to draw the middle. This will place increased importance on the vice-presidential choices for the eventual candidate. Many pundits see the candidates from both parties as either too far left or too far right for a true appeal to the moderate voter. Each will need to look for that moderate candidate to solidify their appeal to the middle for ultimate success in the general election. But if this Democratic support by the New Hampshire Independents is any indicator, the Republicans will be in more need of a moderate vice-president in order to make it back to the White House.