Ok kids, lets get into it because after tomorrow, some old white guys are going to be very happy, some old white women are going to be very sad and Mike Huckabee still won’t know his ass from a hole in the ground.
And a final note before we get into the predictions, all of these are based upon my own interpretation of several media outlets, a few polls (worthless) and what I am hearing from the various nut jobs who have nothing better to do than post political comments on the Internet all day. You get the idea.
Overall Predictions
Turn out will be extremely high for the democrats and average to low for the republicans.
This is a symptom of the two races being completely different in their competitiveness and SHOULD NOT be taken as an indication of turn out in November. In other words (and I am looking at you Hillary supporters) don’t think just because GOP voters didn’t turn out in droves to coronate McCain it means that they won’t walk uphill two miles in the snow to beat the pants suit off of your girl.
GOP predictions
The republican race for the nomination is d-o-n-e
Mitt Romney can look in all the hats and read all the magic rocks he wants but he’s not going to be the nominee. McCain is about to eat his lunch in a very dramatic and very undeniable way that will leave more than a few publicly wondering, “what if the GOP had actually nominated this guy against Gore in 2000.”
Starting Wednesday, every Republican becomes the biggest Hillary supporter you’ve ever seen
McCain has said that he will “beat Hillary Clinton like a drum” and just about everyone but Gloria Steinem knows that he his right. Look for this line in McCain’s victory speech on Tuesday night and his stump speech on Wednesday morning. More than anything else, this will resonate with GOP voters and make them see past their distaste for many of McCain’s positions.
Huckaby is out on Wednesday, Romney is gone by Friday
Good ol’ Huck has gotten more mileage out of this race than he probably ever thought possible. Look for him to be a long-sitting and very popular senator from Arkansas in the near future.
Meanwhile (at the Legion of Doom), Romney will take a couple of days to ask everyone he knows “what the hell just happened?” But ultimately he will fall in line after most likely getting a “how’d you like to be Secretary of the Treasury” phone call from the chairman of the republican party.
Democratic Predictions
The map will go for Hillary and the the delegates will for Obama
Prepare to be amazed and confused folks cause this one gets a little complicated. Because the democratic primaries award all their delegates proportionately, neither Obama nor Hillary will get much of an edge in states like California, where they are neck and neck. So, Obama supporters, don’t get too down if Hillary “wins” California. The way that either candidate is going to help themselves is by beating the crap out of their opponent in the states that they are overwhelmingly ahead. For Obama, this will be places like Georgia and Illinois. For Hillary , it will be places like New York and New Jersey.
Hillary will end up “winning” more states (but only by a smidge which will give her little or no more delegates than her opponent) but Obama will trounce her in the states that he does win (thereby getting more delegates). So when the networks put up their map it will look like Hillary is winning even when she is actually losing.
Hillary spin: I’m losing in the states that we are not going to win in the general election anyway
Look for Hillary to do really well in the traditional democratic strongholds of the West Coast and the Northeast (and if she doesn’t she is in trouble). She will spin this as showing that her wins are more meaningful since Barack Obama can be as popular as Jesus Christ in place like South Carolina but there is no way in Hell that the democrats are taking it in the general election.
Obama spin: I’m losing the states that are guaranteed to us. Oh and did I mention that I am ahead on delegates
One of Obama’s strongest arguments is that he can steal independents and republicans away from John McCain. His primary wins are going to reinforce that and support his arguments that, if the democrats are going to win the white house, they need to take states away from the GOP and not just keep the states that they won in 2000 and 2004.
Like in Nevada, don’t look for the Obama camp to concede anything no matter what Tim Russert’s map looks like. You get to be the democratic nominee by getting delegates not by turning the states a certain color on a map. The Obama campaign will remind everyone of this so many times on Tuesday night that it might even eventually sink in.
Obama spin II: Sure I lost California but half the voters voted before they knew who I was
If Obama loses Ca big, look for the campaign to point out how the voting broke down between those who voted early and those who voted the day of. In California alone over half the voters have already voted. This helps Hillary a great deal since she was the presumed nominee with a huge lead when most of these people were voting.
Obama puts Hillary and McCain in bed together on Wednesday morning
John McCain being the republican nominee helps Obama in a myriad of ways but one you may see more in the coming days is the Obama campaign touting Hillary’s “close relationship” with McCain. Hillary Clinton and John McCain are old Senate buddies and look for Obama to exploit this by saying that now the race is between a republican, a republican-lite and a democrat.
Edwards endorses Obama (even if he doesn’t)
Edwards voters (white males) will break big for Obama. This will be one of the dominating stories of the night.
Here come the lawyers
Once again Florida looms large in determining an election and this time it has brought its little brother Michigan (or as I like to call it – Northern Georgia). Tuesday night is going to show everyone once and for all that this race is going to come down to delegate count. Hillary “won” both Michigan and Florida and is not about to just let those delegates go uncounted. Look for the Hillary campaign to start pushing hard to get those delegates seated and look for the Obama campaign to start to pushing hard back.
This more than anything has the potential to sour this election for the democrats by escalating into a very ugly, very dirty, very public fight, (and do not think the Clintons would hesitate to go there if it means Hillary wins the nomination). I think that this issue starts to come to the forefront on Tuesday night (I am sure both campaigns were hoping to avoid it by getting a rout but that isn’t going to happen). Personally, I think it will go down like this :
- The Clintons will try to put Florida and Michigan in play to win the nomination
- A grass roots campaign will start up to protest this and threaten to derail the democrats hopes for November
- Party peacemakers (Gore, Mitchell) will step in to broker a compromise that lets everyone save face and gets Florida and Michigan represented (but not in the way that Hillary wants)
Finally, Hillary and Obama will both claim victory on Tuesday night (but Obama will have really won)
It is mathematically impossible for the nomination to be won on Tuesday and the polls look like, if anything, the results will give both campaigns hope. However, just by being in the race this late and by being favored by voters who are deciding later, Obama’s future looks brighter in the states ahead. Look for another landslide of donations for the Obama campaign come Wednesday and Thursday and a new message from Hillary by the weekend (including a possible campaign shakeup).
*As always, predictions are guaranteed to be accurate or your money back
