Pundit thought has indicated that it was the Independent vote that carried Senator John McCain to victory in the New Hampshire primary. Let’s look at the numbers to see what we can see:
- New Hampshire has around 850,000 registered voters
- 26% of those are registered Democrats – 221,000 or so
- 30% of those are registered Republicans, which is about 255,000
- 44% of those are Indepentent voters – about 374,000
- According to final results, 517,226 voters turned out on primary day in New Hampshire. This represents almost a 61% voter turnout. Not sure if this includes absentee ballots, but i suspect not.
- Nearly 55% of those voting participated in the Democratic primary – 284,050
- That leaves 45% voting for the Republican slate – 233,176
- Since I’m not a statistician, I can’t really do this “properly”, I’m sure. But let’s take this one or two steps further based on simple math. Based on a nearly 61% turnout, I would expect:
- 134,478 Democrats
- 155,168 Republicans
- 227,579 Independents
It’s unrealistic to expect that 61% turnout to apply equally to all three groups, but without pouring through exit poll data, we can’t be sure. And even with exit poll data, do we really trust that information? Polls have proven unreliable, so let’s ignore them for the moment.
- Continuing this simple analysis: (note: here is where I am unsure how correct this can be without reliable poll data – more on that below)
- 149,571 Independents turned out for the Democratic slate of candidates
- 78,008 Independents chose to vote on the Republican side
But I’m certain this isn’t really accurate. NPR has some good analysis of exit poll data that indicates something else. This is interesting – according to exit poll data:
- 119,301 Independents voted Democratic – about 30,000 fewer than my simple math
- 79,280 Independents voted Republican – only off by 1,280 here
OK then. So what? A little more math.
- Of the remaining “true party” voters, the Democrats came out in slightly larger numbers compared to their Republican neighbors – 51.7% to 48.3%. Assuming these voters would vote for the candidate of their party, it looks a lot like a general election number. And probably “statistically insignificant”.
So back to the original question – Did the Independent vote really help John McCain? Most certainly, yes. But it helped someone (or someones) equally or more in the Democratic primary given the exit poll data and voter turnout. I haven’t seen this angle reported on for the Democrats with the same level of interest as it has been for McCain and the Republicans.
Based on one primary with a very small sample size, it would seem that both parties have the ability to draw the middle. This will place increased importance on the vice-presidential choices for the eventual candidate. Many pundits see the candidates from both parties as either too far left or too far right for a true appeal to the moderate voter. Each will need to look for that moderate candidate to solidify their appeal to the middle for ultimate success in the general election. But if this Democratic support by the New Hampshire Independents is any indicator, the Republicans will be in more need of a moderate vice-president in order to make it back to the White House.
