A bit troubling, a bit creepy but definitely fascinating

Aside from the tired old  ‘insert your enemy’s name here’ is Hitler routine, this still matches up pretty good. And, as far as chewing ass goes, it seems to me like this is probably how it went down.

What would it take?

Ok, so I could argue that the fundamental premise of my prediction was right and that Obama “theoretically” won both contests and it is, as every news outlet is saying, over. But, the math is the math and Hillary won Indiana fair and square.

I mean, what kind of person would be if I were to ignore an undeniable mathematically-based reality? Well, actually I would a member of the Clinton campaign and a pretty high up one at that.

So, now that the writing is on the wall in 40-foot high burning letters and Hillary is preparing to take the red pill, the only really fun topic to talk about is what would it take for Obama to lose. I mean, sure you could come up with some kind of crazy thing like someone finding pictures of him watching the superbowl with Osama Bin laden or finding out that he’s in cahoots with the joker to poison the water supply of Gotham City.

But let’s get real, since Obama probably isn’t a super villian there are really only a few realistic scenarios in which one could imagine him losing this thing. My own personal favorite is kind of lame from a “oh my god he’s burning the American flag”  perspective but would be just as devastating. It’s simple. It’s plausible. And, it comes down to 4 simple words:

Hot.

White.

Blonde.

Girl.

How fast do you think Obama’s numbers would sink if there was even some kind of plausible evidence that he’d had an affair with some “America’s sweetheart” looking chick from Minnesota. Could you imagine?

Right now, Obama has been able to soothe (to a point) older white America’s fear of the angry black man’s secret plan to somehow take over the country although, admittedly, it was getting a little shakey with ol’ crazy Rev. Wright. However, this would do it. Definitely.

And you know what? I’m not sure it would just be the white folks who would have an issue with this either. I bet Obama’s support among black women would sink like a rock as well.

Either way, as fun as this is to talk about, there is absolutely no factual basis for this and I am sure if it were even a remote possibility Hillary would have found it by now and used it about 3.5 seconds after she had the pictures.

For the rest of us, lets just hope that the only person Obama ever hung out with when he was in Minneapolis was Prince.

Yes John and Hillary, we are that dumb (and prediction time!)

Ok, let’s say you have this friend, we’ll call him Fred. And, let’s say that Fred is a super nice guy who just happens to be addicted to heroin. Now, Fred knows he’s addicted to heroin and he really is trying to stop but at the moment, well, Fred’s feeling a little itchy because his dealer got picked up for shoplifting lollipops at Target and he hasn’t had a fix in a couple of days.

So what kind of advice do you think we should give Fred. Should we:

a.) Tell Fred to go to stick out the withdrawls, go to rehab and for God’s sake brush his teeth?

b.) Tell Fred to sell his grandmother’s china to get one more fix from the new dealer down the street who Fred’s never met but doesn’t quite think is a cop but possibly could be a cop since he drives and unmarked lincoln and has a buzz cut and a mustache?

Well, this is pretty much what this whole gas tax vacation is about. In this case, unfortunately, we are Fred and John McCain, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are our friends. Now, John and Hillary really really want us to like them so they are probably our co-dependent stripper girlfriends in this scenario. And, because John and Hillary want us to like them so much, they are going ahead with the grandmother’s china idea.

Barack Obama is our nice guy friend who has his own life together but, for some reason, still puts up with our shit even though we stole his grandmother’s tv and sold it for, you guessed it, heroin. He’s telling us to go to rehab.

Anyway, the gas tax vacation idea is a bad idea because it is an extremely temporary solution to an extremely long-term and complex problem. Not only will it take revenue away from the government in the form of $9 billion but it’s not really going to save you any money.  You can read a nice little experiment on what it would take save a $100 on gas here: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/05/05/one-mans-quest-to-save-10_n_100218.html. But I will save you the time reading and just say that if you want to save $100 in gas money, be prepared to drive 979 miles per day all summer. Enjoy!

So what’s it gonna be Fred? Do we listen to the stripper girlfriend who’s standing there eating peanut butter out of the jar and wearing one of our shirts or do we listen to our buddy who’s grandma hasn’t been able to watch Murder She Wrote in three weeks? 

I guess we’ll find out today in Indiana and North Carolina.

Finally I am going to do a little something different since trying to be right all the time gets boring. I am going to go out on a limb and predict what I would like to see happen rather than what the conventional wisdom (read: polls) say is going to happen:

Obama wins both. It’s over.

The only rationale I can supply for this is a huge black and early voting turnout in Indiana and North Carolina. And the “state next to the state” effect that Illinois will have on Indiana. 

 

 

 

Dear black folks, I am sorry

Ok, is it just me or did Hillary Clinton’s apology to ‘the black community’ ring just a little bit hollow? Call me a psychic friend but I am guessing that her advisers probably sat her down in a room and there was a conversation that went a little something like this:

“Um, Hillary, you know that thing that you have been doing that Bill started in South Carolina where you basically just dismiss Barack Obama’s entire candidacy by painting him as ‘the black candidate?’ Yeah, well that’s really kind of starting piss people off. I mean, everybody is kind of pissed about it and, well, black people are reeeeallllly pissed about it. Apparently, they just went 9 out of 10 against you in Mississippi and pretty much erased any gains you made with Ohio, Rhode Island and Texas. So, um, seeing as how no democrat will ever get elected to the presidency without a strong turnout from African-American voters, we’re really gonna need you to make a speech or something to, um, well kind of say you’re, um, well, you know, you’re ah, well, you’re sorry.”

And then, after Hillary killed that guy and they dragged his body away (I am guessing on a plastic tarp, but that’s really just a guess) she apparently took his words to heart. Of course, she was probably eating his heart that she pulled out of his chest like the bad guy from Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom while she did it, but the important thing was that she listened.

So yesterday, like a boyfriend who isn’t sure what he did and really doesn’t feel like he should be in trouble but who desperately wants to get laid again sometime this year, Hillary trotted out a nice big fat apology to all of the black folks who were offended by some of her campaign tactics, and to all the folks who didn’t like Hurricane Katrina and to all of the folks who were pissed that they tried to replace Arnold with that younger, cuter red-headed white kid during the last season of ‘Diff’rent Strokes.’

Ok, I made that last one up, but still, if it would have gotten her one more percentage point of the black vote in Philly, I have no doubt that Hillary would have stood up there and sang ‘Boogie Wonderland’ by Earth, Wind and Fire if they’d have asked her too.

Frankly, I am not sure what is more insulting, being told that the black guy who is campaigning better than you is just winning because he is black or being pandered to because someone finally realized that, oh yeah, your vote isn’t just a commodity to be taken for granted.

Either way, the Clinton campaign has now done their best to make this a race between blue-collar whites (read: poor) against black and once again the people who stand to gain the most from this are the old white guy and all of his rich friends.

Thanks a lot Hillary.

One last note about Ohio (ok, and Texas too)

There’s even a chance that Hillary could win the state but actually lose in the delegate count similar to what happened in the Nevada caucuses. Of the Buckeye State’s 141 delegates at stake, 92 of them are apportioned by congressional districts in a way that favors Obama. You can get a pretty nice round up of the daunting mathematics she faces in trying to gain ground here.

Also, the “Texas Two-Step” which is what the Obama campaign has been calling the Texas primary-caucus system definitely seems to be in favor of Obama since he is undefeated in caucuses this year.

There have been several stories that have gone under the radar recently of the Hillary campaign’s poor management of delegate counting and complete ignorance of the individual states’ primary systems. It would be cruelly or perhaps laughably (depending on where you sit) ironic if the candidate who has been running on experience and competence ended up losing because her campaign couldn’t master something that you could find out from any high school civics class.

The problem with early momentum

Early leads often appear “insurmountable”. Clear, consistent trends lead to “foregone conclusions”. Neighbors of a murderer often comment “he seemed like such a normal guy – this is such a shock.” Friends and relatives of heart attack victims have been known to comment: “she was so healthy – we never saw this coming”. These are reasons the current political trends are concerning for the Democratic Party.

When prevailing public sentiment indicates one direction, look the other way. And don’t get hit by the bus.

What are the current indicators, trends, majority opinions, predictions, or other things that we can see at the moment?

1. Democrats are showing up at the polls in droves – 14.6 million democrats vs. 8.3 million republicans. Pundits seem to think this is good news for the democrats. It could be, but usually isn’t. It’s a historical trend, with only two notable primary seasons where the 3:2 ratio/rule did not hold true: Clinton re-election in 1996 and Gore in 2000. (Numbers here.) Most notable in all of this, the Democrats are very excited about their candidates, while the Republicans clearly are not.
2. Democrats are raising more money than the Republicans. This is actually interesting, as the Republican Party is typically viewed as having deeper pockets than their Democratic counterparts. But it only matters if the Democrats don’t waste it all attacking one another in Primary Elections. But it still is interesting.
3. At least 6 different polls show or have shown that Obama beats McCain in the General Election. OK. Polls also showed Obama beating Clinton in New Hampshire, and that certainly didn’t work out according to the numbers. Polls are inherently unreliable, and yet the media continues to forget this fact 14 seconds after acknowledging it each time they re-learn it. The gum on my shoe has more memory recall than many of these political pundits.
4. The super-delegate safety valve in the Democratic Party looms as a large concern. As I wrote previously and as many outlets are also beginning to report, this is a potentially devastating problem for the Dems. Not so much a trend, but the Republicans have to be giddy at the prospect of the Democrats undermining their constituency by going against the popular vote to accede to prevailing wisdom (see item 3 above) and select the candidate with the best shot at beating the Republican nominee. This leads to disenfranchisement and low turnout and an easy path to victory for the Republicans.

If I were a hard-core democrat, I’d be very concerned about each of these developments. But I am superstitious, and each of these things concern me, as I don’t think four more years of Republican leadership is what this country needs. Let’s take a quick look the whole problem in a bit more detail, because that’s when concern really starts to grow.

As stated, the Democrats are showing up at the polling places and caucus sites in big numbers. Part of this is due to anger with the current administration, part is historical trend, and part of this is no doubt due to the magnetism of Barack Obama. He has shown a strong ability to pull the younger demographic, while Hillary consistently pulls the 59+ crowd. They fight for the middle age ranges. As far as race goes, Obama has proven he can win the white vote with victories in the south, midwest, west, northeast. He has great pull among African-Americans, and has shown he can win in the midwest. He has also shown he can pull the moderate vote. Clinton resonates with women, but not as consistently as Obama with the African-American vote.

If the super-delegates push the tally towards Clinton, I don’t expect Obama’s core following to simply fall in line behind her. I don’t think there will be a dream ticket with Obama on the undercard. These voters will either stay home in November, or jump ship to a moderately conservative McCain. Either way, not good for the Democratic Party.

McCain’s chances greatly improve against Clinton, as he will be able to capture the moderates and independents as well as those who simply want to keep the Clintons out of the White House. This coupled with disenfranchised Democratic voters will cause McCain turnout to skyrocket.

The Democrats need to address the national campaign sooner rather than later. Howard Dean, DNC leader, has said as much recently. Dean indicated a candidate will emerge in February or March, or they will have a sit down. In the meantime, the DNC can run counter-McCain ad campaigns, but don’t really have a message to rally around other than “don’t vote for another Republican who sounds a lot like the current president”.

Obama and Clinton continue to rack up big campaign donations to fight against one another. Their public positions have really become much more civilized and a bit more unified. In their debates and speeches, they are focusing on their differences on issues rather than taking one another’s words out of context and twisting them. That’s what the ad campaigns will be for. This is a waste of time and money.

The Democrats need to capitalize on this early momentum and grow it. Otherwise, as the saying goes, past performance will not be an indicator of future success.

More Primary Predictions

Don’t look now kids but this thing ain’t over by a long shot. I am predicting that February is going to be a cold cruel month for Hillary Clinton but, if she can make it through the February gauntlet, things will look up for her in March.

Anyway, the logic these predictions are based on is fairly simple:

• Obama has been winning caucuses and primaries where the state has a significant black population (i.e. here comes D.C., Baltimore, Louisiana)
• Clinton has been winning hard core democratic state primaries and still does well with Hispanics
• McCain is taking pretty much every moderate to conservative republican state
• Huckabee is winning the states in which a majority of republicans still believe in Santa Claus, the Rapture and Magic Faries (no not Sigfried and Roy, the other kind).

Upcoming Primaries (my projected winner) *

February 9
Louisiana primary (Obama, Huckabee),
Washington caucuses (Obama, McCain),
Nebraska caucuses – democrats only (Obama)
Kansas caucuses – republicans only (Huckabee)

February 10
Maine caucuses – democrats only (Obama)

February 12
Maryland primary (Obama, McCain)
Virginia primary (Obama, McCain)
Washington, D.C. primary (Obama, McCain)

February 19
Wisconsin primary (Obama, McCain)
Hawaii caucuses – democrats only (Obama)

March 4
Ohio primary (Obama, McCain)
Rhode Island primary (Clinton, McCain)
Texas primary (Clinton, Huckabee)
Vermont primary (Clinton)

*As always, predictions guaranteed or your money back

Hillary Clinton’s super-delegates and “The Establishment” of Barack Obama: What’s the difference?

Today, Hillary Clinton made the statement that Barack Obama’s campaign is “increasingly establishment-oriented”, due to his recent endorsement by heavy hitters of the Democratic Party. As Alex Koppelman points out in an article on Salon, “Clinton’s husband held some sort of high position in the government and the Democratic Party not so long ago”.

Let’s put that portion of the argument aside. The real pot/kettle situation here can be seen in the delegate count. According to numbers from CNN, Clinton has won 625 delegates, (575 on Super Tuesday), and Obama has won 624 (560 on Super Tuesday) delegates during the primary/caucus season to date. Very close race.

Now, let’s take a look at the super-delegate counts (numbers from CNN):

• Clinton has 193 super-delegates
• Obama has 106 super-delegates

That’s a big difference, and that difference clearly is the reason that Clinton has a measurable lead over Obama. And as I wrote a month ago, those super-delegates are members of the Democratic Party elite. Also known as…the establishment. So accusing someone of being the establishment candidate due to party endorsements while failing to acknowledge your own supporters from the same elite class of the party, well isn’t that some form of…hypocrisy? Political election season…it’s faaaaaaaantastic.

These are the actions of a desperate candidate. So is floating your campaign a $5 million dollar “loan”. Appears that many of her big donors have met their limit on campaign contributions. Now not quite Romney numbers, but dipping into your own pocket sure doesn’t bode well for the future of the campaign war chest. Looks like it is time for some trickeration with funneling campaign dollars.

So with dwindling campaign funds, but clear backing from “The Establishment”, what’s a woman to do? How can we get television exposure without having to spend millions on air time? How can this be done…there has to be a way…

Debates! How about lots and lots of debates? We obviously haven’t had enough, at least not this year. “Free” airtime for both her and her friend Barack, where she hopes to pants him with more lies about his comments about the Republican Party or other such word twisting. So she has agreed to four additional debates, one per week, over the next month or so.

So with lots of time before we have a winner, and with more time appearing to benefit Barack Obama ($32 million raised in January!), the Clinton camp realizes they are in trouble. Watch for some classic dirty tricks in the coming days and weeks.

Predictions for Super Duper Tuesday*

Ok kids, lets get into it because after tomorrow, some old white guys are going to be very happy, some old white women are going to be very sad and Mike Huckabee still won’t know his ass from a hole in the ground.

And a final note before we get into the predictions, all of these are based upon my own interpretation of several media outlets, a few polls (worthless) and what I am hearing from the various nut jobs who have nothing better to do than post political comments on the Internet all day. You get the idea.

Overall Predictions

Turn out will be extremely high for the democrats and average to low for the republicans.
This is a symptom of the two races being completely different in their competitiveness and SHOULD NOT be taken as an indication of turn out in November. In other words (and I am looking at you Hillary supporters) don’t think just because GOP voters didn’t turn out in droves to coronate McCain it means that they won’t walk uphill two miles in the snow to beat the pants suit off of your girl.

GOP predictions

The republican race for the nomination is d-o-n-e
Mitt Romney can look in all the hats and read all the magic rocks he wants but he’s not going to be the nominee. McCain is about to eat his lunch in a very dramatic and very undeniable way that will leave more than a few publicly wondering, “what if the GOP had actually nominated this guy against Gore in 2000.”

Starting Wednesday, every Republican becomes the biggest Hillary supporter you’ve ever seen
McCain has said that he will “beat Hillary Clinton like a drum” and just about everyone but Gloria Steinem knows that he his right. Look for this line in McCain’s victory speech on Tuesday night and his stump speech on Wednesday morning. More than anything else, this will resonate with GOP voters and make them see past their distaste for many of McCain’s positions.

Huckaby is out on Wednesday, Romney is gone by Friday
Good ol’ Huck has gotten more mileage out of this race than he probably ever thought possible. Look for him to be a long-sitting and very popular senator from Arkansas in the near future.

Meanwhile (at the Legion of Doom), Romney will take a couple of days to ask everyone he knows “what the hell just happened?” But ultimately he will fall in line after most likely getting a “how’d you like to be Secretary of the Treasury” phone call from the chairman of the republican party.

Democratic Predictions

The map will go for Hillary and the the delegates will for Obama
Prepare to be amazed and confused folks cause this one gets a little complicated. Because the democratic primaries award all their delegates proportionately, neither Obama nor Hillary will get much of an edge in states like California, where they are neck and neck. So, Obama supporters, don’t get too down if Hillary “wins” California. The way that either candidate is going to help themselves is by beating the crap out of their opponent in the states that they are overwhelmingly ahead. For Obama, this will be places like Georgia and Illinois. For Hillary , it will be places like New York and New Jersey.

Hillary will end up “winning” more states (but only by a smidge which will give her little or no more delegates than her opponent) but Obama will trounce her in the states that he does win (thereby getting more delegates). So when the networks put up their map it will look like Hillary is winning even when she is actually losing.

Hillary spin: I’m losing in the states that we are not going to win in the general election anyway
Look for Hillary to do really well in the traditional democratic strongholds of the West Coast and the Northeast (and if she doesn’t she is in trouble). She will spin this as showing that her wins are more meaningful since Barack Obama can be as popular as Jesus Christ in place like South Carolina but there is no way in Hell that the democrats are taking it in the general election.

Obama spin: I’m losing the states that are guaranteed to us. Oh and did I mention that I am ahead on delegates
One of Obama’s strongest arguments is that he can steal independents and republicans away from John McCain. His primary wins are going to reinforce that and support his arguments that, if the democrats are going to win the white house, they need to take states away from the GOP and not just keep the states that they won in 2000 and 2004.

Like in Nevada, don’t look for the Obama camp to concede anything no matter what Tim Russert’s map looks like. You get to be the democratic nominee by getting delegates not by turning the states a certain color on a map. The Obama campaign will remind everyone of this so many times on Tuesday night that it might even eventually sink in.

Obama spin II: Sure I lost California but half the voters voted before they knew who I was
If Obama loses Ca big, look for the campaign to point out how the voting broke down between those who voted early and those who voted the day of. In California alone over half the voters have already voted. This helps Hillary a great deal since she was the presumed nominee with a huge lead when most of these people were voting.

Obama puts Hillary and McCain in bed together on Wednesday morning
John McCain being the republican nominee helps Obama in a myriad of ways but one you may see more in the coming days is the Obama campaign touting Hillary’s “close relationship” with McCain. Hillary Clinton and John McCain are old Senate buddies and look for Obama to exploit this by saying that now the race is between a republican, a republican-lite and a democrat.

Edwards endorses Obama (even if he doesn’t)
Edwards voters (white males) will break big for Obama. This will be one of the dominating stories of the night.

Here come the lawyers
Once again Florida looms large in determining an election and this time it has brought its little brother Michigan (or as I like to call it – Northern Georgia). Tuesday night is going to show everyone once and for all that this race is going to come down to delegate count. Hillary “won” both Michigan and Florida and is not about to just let those delegates go uncounted. Look for the Hillary campaign to start pushing hard to get those delegates seated and look for the Obama campaign to start to pushing hard back.

This more than anything has the potential to sour this election for the democrats by escalating into a very ugly, very dirty, very public fight, (and do not think the Clintons would hesitate to go there if it means Hillary wins the nomination). I think that this issue starts to come to the forefront on Tuesday night (I am sure both campaigns were hoping to avoid it by getting a rout but that isn’t going to happen). Personally, I think it will go down like this :

1. The Clintons will try to put Florida and Michigan in play to win the nomination
2. A grass roots campaign will start up to protest this and threaten to derail the democrats hopes for November
3. Party peacemakers (Gore, Mitchell) will step in to broker a compromise that lets everyone save face and gets Florida and Michigan represented (but not in the way that Hillary wants)

Finally, Hillary and Obama will both claim victory on Tuesday night (but Obama will have really won)
It is mathematically impossible for the nomination to be won on Tuesday and the polls look like, if anything, the results will give both campaigns hope. However, just by being in the race this late and by being favored by voters who are deciding later, Obama’s future looks brighter in the states ahead. Look for another landslide of donations for the Obama campaign come Wednesday and Thursday and a new message from Hillary by the weekend (including a possible campaign shakeup).

*As always, predictions are guaranteed to be accurate or your money back

Can we?

http://youtube.com/watch?v=jjXyqcx-mYY